Twelve months ago, Micron Technology posted $11.32 billion in quarterly revenue and $3.03 in earnings per share. When the company reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30, analysts expect about $50.0 billion in revenue, and Micron itself guided to roughly $31.00 in non-GAAP EPS. That is not a rounding error. It is a fundamental change in what this business earns.
Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026 results delivered a $41.46 billion revenue record, a 346% year-over-year increase, with an 84.6% gross margin and non-GAAP EPS of $25.11. Management then issued Q4 guidance of $50.0 billion (plus or minus $1.0 billion) in revenue and about 86% gross margins. Those two numbers, in sequence, describe a company still accelerating.
Why Wall Street Is Paying Attention
Micron sits near $977 per share with about a $1.1 trillion market cap, and the company has said it has completed agreements on price and volume for its entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, including HBM4. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 90% to 95% quarter over quarter in the first calendar quarter of 2026 and another 58% to 63% in the second, according to TrendForce.
The lowest target among widely circulated recent notes comes from Goldman Sachs, which has a Neutral rating and a $1,100 target, while $2,000 targets have been issued by firms including Susquehanna and Barclays. Options markets are pricing roughly an 11% move in either direction around the September 30 report.
What’s Driving the Opportunity
Micron forecasts the HBM total addressable market to increase at roughly a 40% annual rate through calendar 2028, rising from about $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion by 2028.
The company is developing HBM4E, with volume manufacturing anticipated in calendar year 2027. The infrastructure is being built during peak pricing, which makes the timing of supply additions the central investment question.
Micron has started manufacturing 1-alpha DRAM at Manassas, Virginia as part of its broader U.S. expansion vision, while securing multi-year AI memory agreements. That lag is actually the bull’s best argument: the new supply is years out, and the demand contracts are already signed.
What Could Go Wrong
TrendForce expects DRAM contract price increases to moderate to 13% to 18% quarter over quarter in the third calendar quarter of 2026, which covers most of Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter. That deceleration is not a collapse, but it is worth watching in the guidance language on September 30.
Memory’s history as one of the most volatile semiconductor categories is not erased by a single supercycle, however dramatic. The bear case rests on a familiar pattern: extended periods of high pricing historically incentivize aggressive capacity additions, and Samsung and SK Hynix are both expanding HBM and DRAM production in response to the same demand signals driving Micron’s results. CEO insider selling of roughly $37 million this year has also drawn scrutiny, though it does not change the earnings trajectory.
The Bottom Line
The Street sees roughly $31 a share next quarter against $3.03 last year, yet the stock trades near 7x forward earnings. That disconnect is the entire argument for owning Micron here. The market is discounting these numbers as cyclical peak earnings unlikely to persist, and management’s multi-year agreements are the direct counterargument. September 30 will not settle that debate permanently, but the guidance language for fiscal 2027 will tell investors whether the next chapter starts from strength or signals the top.
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